National regional property values continue to outpace their capital city counterparts, demonstrating “remarkable resilience”, according to recent research by CoreLogic.
The aggregate ‘combined regionals’ Home Value Index has been recording a stronger monthly growth trend relative to the capitals through most of 2024 and now into 2025, with an increase of 5.8% over the 12 months to February.
CoreLogic Economist Kaytlin Ezzy further noted increases in regional house prices could be attributed to improved relative affordability across the regions, compared to capital city property markets.
She added, “the regions have regained much of the affordability advantage, with the capital city premium widening by around $50,000 over the past two years to around $240,000 in January.”
The regions have also benefited from both an elevated flow of capital city residents moving to the regions, along with a reduction in the number of people leaving the regions for the capitals.
Late last year, ABS reporting on working arrangements revealed 36.3% of employed people usually worked from home, which whilst down from COVID-highs, was still above the 32.1% reported in 2019.
In related property metrics, underpinning this continued median house price growth, CoreLogic reported an increase in sales volumes of 9.6% in regional markets (compared to 7.5 for capital cities), along with a 6.5% increase in rents (compared to 4.3% for capitals), for the full 2024 calendar year.
Although investor and first home buyer lending activity decreased in the latest reporting period to September 2024, owner-occupier lending remained steady.
Core Logic reported the outlook for housing markets is looking more positive with “rates cuts on the horizon” (with the anticipated 0.25 basis point reduction to the cash rate delivered on 18 February 2025, less than a week after the report was released). They further noted, “alongside improving consumer sentiment, we could see some renewed support for housing prices over the coming months”.
They predict lower interest rates will boost the housing market in 2025 as “lower rates mean buyers can borrow more, spend more, and ultimately make housing a more attractive investment”.
“In the current economic climate, these rate cuts should go a long way in boosting consumer confidence”.
CoreLogic estimates based on previous periods of rate reductions that “national dwelling values would increase an average of 6.1% for each 1 percentage point decline in the cash rate”.
The majority of Australia’s real estate professionals (65%) predict house prices will rise in 2025, driven by improving affordability, rising incomes and the potential of cuts to interest rates.
According to CoreLogic’s latest Regional Market Update (November 2024), there were 18,413 dwelling sales in the Gold Coast – Tweed region over 12 months, a 3.9% increase on the previous year. The same period saw a 10.5% annual increase in the median house price. The same report noted 41.5% of dwelling sales were at a price over $1,000,000, with the largest sale price bracket (32.8% of all sales)
The latest ABS population data by region shows a net increase of 19,460 new residents moved to the Gold Coast-Tweed Heads region in the 12 months to Jun 2023 – a 2.7% increase to a total population of over 735,000 residents. A number which continues to grow compared to recent years (growing at an average of 11,885 persons per year for the previous 5 years), and is significantly higher than the national population growth of 2.4% for the same 12 month period.
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